Nationalism in political discussions activates latent nationalist views in many people, which affects voting behavior and helps right-wing parties. According to various studies, people who set particularly high boundaries for national belonging, such as being born in the country, have an above-average nationalist attitude and usually support strict immigration policies. However, people with this attitude do not always vote for right-wing parties. Antonia May from the GESIS – Leibniz Institute for Social Sciences explains that “although many people in Europe have an excluding understanding of national identity, relatively few people in most European countries vote for extreme right-wing parties.”
May and Christian Czymara from Tel Aviv University have published a study in the journal Nations and Nationalism that examines how voting decisions are influenced by a person’s nationalist tendencies and the statements of parties on nationalism and migration. The analysis of data from 26 years and 135,000 respondents from 26 European countries shows that there is a correlation between a person’s nationalist attitude and right-wing voting decisions. However, this connection is much weaker than previously assumed.
The study also found that if parties from the center integrate nationalist statements or critical positions towards multiculturalism into their election programs, people with nationalist beliefs are more likely to vote for right-wing parties. This relationship is particularly strong in times when various parties use exclusionary rhetoric. This connection also exists when additional factors such as the ratio of refugees to the total population and the unemployment rate are taken into account.
The researchers noticed a significant increase in nationalist attitudes in Germany during the refugee crisis in 2015, which coincided with a rise in support for the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD). The authors suggest that latent nationalist beliefs in many voters are activated by political discussions, which in turn changes voting behavior, primarily benefiting right-wing parties. Therefore, parties that are not far-right are likely to harm themselves if they use such rhetoric.
In conclusion, the study shows that while there is a correlation between nationalist attitudes and right-wing voting decisions, this connection is weaker than previously assumed. However, right-wing parties benefit from an overall exclusionary political climate in which national borders are on the political agenda.
