Germany Aims for 15 Million Electric Cars by 2030, but Experts Say It’s Unrealistic
Germany’s federal government has set a target of having 15 million electric cars on the road by 2030. However, a recent study by the Wuppertal Institute revealed that this number is not enough to achieve the planned reduction in emissions. Another study by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) found that even the lower target of the federal government will be missed. The researchers believe that measures must be taken to achieve the political goals. Currently, Germany offers a subsidy of €4,500 for the purchase of an electric car. However, from September 1, 2023, commercial buyers, who make up about two-thirds of new registrations, will no longer receive this subsidy. In addition, the bonus will be reduced to €3,000 for private customers from January 1, 2024.
In the first half of this year, the number of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Germany grew to almost 1.2 million, which corresponds to a percentage of 2.4 out of a total of 49 million cars. According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority, 220,000 new BEVs were registered during this period. However, Stefan Bratzel, the head of the CAM, emphasizes that 750,000 new BEVs are needed this year to achieve the desired growth. Realistically, only 450,000 new registrations are expected. On this growth trajectory, there could be seven to eight million electric cars on the road by 2030, which is only half of the government’s target. Despite a study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI) showing that the total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric cars is already lower than that of combustion engines, it seems that the government’s goals can only be achieved through appropriate subsidy programs.
Reinhard Zirpel, the president of the Association of International Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (VDIK), therefore calls for an extension of the subsidies. “The market for electric cars will only reach last year’s level by 2023. Electromobility is not yet a self-runner,” he said.
