BP Study Finds Hydrogen Vehicles Will Not Play Significant Role in Future Climate-Neutral Mobility
A recent study by BP, one of the leading energy companies, has examined the market share of hydrogen-powered cars and trucks in the future of climate-neutral mobility. The BP Energy Outlook 2023 report concluded that hydrogen vehicles will not play a significant role in the future of climate-neutral mobility in both 2035 and 2050. Instead, the report predicts that over 70% of vehicles will be powered by electricity by 2050, with the remaining vehicles primarily running on oil products, supplemented by limited amounts of biofuels and natural gas.
The report analyzed three scenarios, including Net Zero, where there are no CO2 emissions, and two scenarios where CO2 emissions are reduced by 30% or 75%. In all three scenarios, battery-powered vehicles are expected to dominate at least one-third of the market. Hydrogen vehicles are expected to occupy a niche position with shares of 0.3% to 0.6% in both scenarios by 2050, with no significant market share in 2035.
These findings are significant because BP is a major investor in the hydrogen business, with plans to produce 500,000 to 700,000 tons of mainly green hydrogen per year by 2030. However, the company plans to use the hydrogen primarily for difficult-to-electrify processes in industries such as steel and chemicals, as well as its own oil refineries. BP also sees the transportation sector as a potential customer, particularly for shipping, aviation, and heavy-duty road transport. The current forecast of the company supports this strategy, with hydrogen potentially accounting for up to 30% of the market share for medium and heavy-duty vehicles by 2050.
In conclusion, the BP study suggests that hydrogen vehicles will not play a significant role in the future of climate-neutral mobility, with battery-powered vehicles dominating the market. However, hydrogen may still have a niche role in certain industries and transportation sectors.
