Alarming news has emerged from the University of Saarland, which predicts that Germany could see 20,000 new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections per day within the next two to three weeks. This comes after the country recorded approximately 40,000 new cases in the last seven days alone. The university’s online simulator, which uses data from the Robert Koch-Institut and other sources, suggests that if the current rate of infection continues, the number of new cases could double in a matter of weeks.
Professor Thorsten Lehr, who specializes in Clinical Pharmacy at the University of Saarland, explains that the simulator also takes into account the impact of political interventions on the spread of the virus. Unfortunately, the current R-value for Germany is estimated to be 1.56, indicating a sharp increase in the rate of infection. If this trend continues, Professor Lehr warns that some states, such as Saarland, could see a similar number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals as was seen during the peak of the first wave in April.
The university’s analysis also suggests that the number of hospitalizations is closely linked to the age of those infected. Currently, the health system is coping well with the rising number of cases, as many of those infected are younger and less likely to require hospitalization. However, the situation is expected to worsen in the coming weeks, with a potential seven-fold increase in the number of patients requiring intensive care. Even if the R-value drops below 1 by early November, the university predicts that there could still be over 10,000 new cases per day.
These predictions are cause for concern, and it is essential that individuals and governments take action to slow the spread of the virus. The university’s analysis serves as a reminder that we must all continue to follow guidelines and take precautions to protect ourselves and those around us.
