The effects of climate change are being felt in the world’s largest banana-producing countries, India and Brazil, where rising temperatures and reduced rainfall are leading to a significant decrease in banana yields. Additionally, the Fusarium fungus, originally from Southeast Asia, is threatening banana plantations worldwide. Bananas are not only a popular fruit in Germany, but they are also a staple food and a significant source of income for many tropical regions. A recent study by the University of Exeter warns that the impact of climate change on banana production could have severe consequences for the global food supply.
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, analyzed data from 27 countries that account for 80% of the world’s banana cultivation and 86% of banana production. The researchers evaluated annual temperature and rainfall averages and combined them with yield data to determine the optimal conditions for good harvests. They then developed a model to predict the impact of climate change on banana yields. The study found that rising temperatures have increased yields by an average of 1.37 tons per hectare between 1961 and 2016. However, if regional optimum temperatures are exceeded, the rising temperatures can have the opposite effect, leading to lower yields.
The study predicts that even a mild increase in global temperatures, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement’s goals, could lead to significant declines in banana production in ten of the 27 countries studied, including India, Brazil, Colombia, and Costa Rica. However, some African countries and Ecuador could see an increase in banana production due to climate change. The researchers emphasize the need for tropical agriculture to prepare for future climate changes, such as investing in new irrigation systems.
In addition to climate change, the Fusarium fungus poses a significant threat to banana production worldwide. The fungus has spread globally since the 1990s and has already affected plantations in East Africa and Central America. The researchers stress the importance of taking action to protect banana production, stating that “it is essential that agriculture in the tropics prepares for future climate changes.”
