According to a recent study by researchers at Emory University in Atlanta, based on four human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 will become harmless to humans in the future, and vaccinations will no longer be necessary in a few years. As of January 15, 2021, nearly two million people worldwide have died from Covid-19. While the effectiveness of vaccines and lockdowns in preventing further infections with SARS-CoV-2 in the medium and long term remains uncertain, the researchers used a Covid-19 model to make a prediction about the future development of the pandemic.
The scientists used immunological and epidemiological data from the four known human coronaviruses NL63, 229E, OC43, and HKU1, which cause local epidemics in various countries around the world, primarily infecting children between the ages of three and five. Like Covid-19, these infections in this age group usually have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all. Severe cases, complications, and deaths from coronaviruses in children are therefore rare exceptions. Additionally, it is already known that after infection with the four human coronaviruses, only a short-lived complete immunity is produced.
The researchers assume that an infection with SARS-CoV-2 will not provide permanent immunity, but at least a lifelong partial immunity. Further infections could even strengthen this effect. In this scenario, only a few elderly people would become seriously ill with Covid-19 in the long term. Seniors could become infected with SARS-CoV-2, but not become ill due to their previously acquired partial immunity, and pass the virus on to children. The children would then become infected with Covid-19 due to their lack of partial immunity, which would only lead to severe consequences in a few cases, and build up partial immunity for their later life. SARS-CoV-2 would thus become an endemic pathogen. The current vaccinations would be unnecessary worldwide in a few years and should be discontinued so that children can build up partial immunity naturally, which will protect them from severe cases and deaths in their later years. However, if it turns out that a first infection with SARS-CoV-2 frequently leads to serious health problems in children, they would also need to be protected from the virus with a vaccine.
