Germany is facing a potential fourth wave of Covid-19, with a rapid increase in cases predicted from October 2021. According to a report by scientists at the Technical University of Berlin, the situation could be improved by widespread use of ventilation systems, rapid and PCR testing, and a vaccination rate of at least 95%. The researchers warn that an exponential rise in hospitalizations is likely to begin in October, with the situation worsening if current trends continue. The high relative increases in seven-day incidence rates in recent weeks are seen as a worrying sign of a coming wave.
The report suggests that the situation will worsen in the autumn, with schools reopening without protective measures. The simulation predicts a fourth wave among adults, which will be exacerbated by activities moving indoors. This will lead to a wave of infections among schoolchildren. The researchers suggest that a vaccination rate of 95% could prevent a further wave, but the current rate is much lower. The use of ventilation systems and rapid and PCR testing could also significantly reduce the spread of the virus, potentially making school closures or alternating attendance unnecessary.
The scientists emphasize the need for additional measures, as the current rate of two rapid tests per week is insufficient. The report highlights the urgent need for action to prevent a fourth wave, which could have serious consequences for public health and the economy. The situation is being closely monitored, and experts are calling for a coordinated response to prevent a further surge in cases.
