The Covid-Simulator developed by scientists at the University of Saarland predicts that the lockdown in Germany must continue until mid-February to achieve less than 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants. The simulation is based on data from the Robert Koch Institute, local health authorities, and other sources. The model accurately predicted in October 2020 that Germany would soon have 20,000 new cases of SARS-CoV-2 per day. The Covid-Simulator now shows that the rate of less than 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants will not be achieved until mid-February at the earliest.
The current seven-day incidence rate in Germany is 139.2, and the government plans to ease lockdown restrictions once the rate drops below 50. However, according to Thorsten Lehr, the chances of this happening by the end of January are “extremely low to non-existent.” Lehr believes that significant easing of restrictions, such as reopening schools, should only occur when the rate drops to 25 or lower.
The Covid-Simulator developed by the University of Saarland is a valuable tool for predicting the spread of the virus and informing government decisions. However, the results are not always optimistic, and the current prediction of mid-February for achieving the desired rate of less than 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants is considered optimistic by Lehr. The public must continue to adhere to lockdown measures and follow guidelines to reduce the spread of the virus.
