A new study has linked weather data with election results for the first time, revealing that extreme temperatures lead to an increase in votes for green parties. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) found that the impact of climate change has resulted in additional votes for green parties. The study suggests that this is due to the increased environmental awareness of the European Union (EU) population. The percentage of people who believe that environmental issues should be a priority in their country’s politics has tripled from less than 5% in 2002 to 2019. The percentage of seats held by green parties in the European Parliament has also increased significantly from 5.7% in 2004 to 9.9% in 2019.
Scientists have previously believed that climate change and extreme weather events have influenced voters’ decisions. However, the causal relationship between personal experiences with climate change and voting decisions has not been proven. The researchers, led by Roman Hoffmann from the Austrian Academy of Sciences, have linked weather data on temperature and drought with voting behavior and environmental attitudes. They analyzed 42 Eurobarometer surveys from 2002 to 2019 for 34 European countries, as well as the results of six European elections from 1994 to 2019 in 28 countries. The study found that “significant and substantial effects of temperature anomalies, heatwaves, and droughts on environmental awareness and voting for green parties” exist. Extreme weather events with immediate effects on people’s lives lead to more people voting for green parties.
The data shows a strong correlation between temperature anomalies and voting behavior. If every month of the year has an additional unusually warm day, the study estimates that the approval rating for green parties in European Parliament elections would increase by 0.8 percentage points based on historical data. The fear of climate change and other environmental problems varies greatly within the EU. Environmental awareness has increased significantly in Western and Northern Europe in recent years, while changes in Southern and Eastern Europe have been minimal. This is also reflected in voting behavior. Weather extremes have less influence on voters’ decisions in Southern European regions than in countries with a moderate climate like Germany. The researchers suggest that this is likely due to people’s better adaptation to temperatures in these regions.
