The Covid-19 pandemic has caused a devastating loss of life worldwide, with the World Health Organization (WHO) reporting 3.2 million deaths as of May 7, 2021. However, a new model developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle suggests that the actual death toll is more than double that figure, at 6.9 million. The IHME’s calculations also reveal significant discrepancies in reported deaths between countries, with Germany, for example, reporting 84,400 deaths compared to the IHME’s estimate of almost 121,000.
The IHME’s model only includes deaths directly caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and does not account for indirect deaths such as those resulting from increased rates of sudden cardiac arrest during the pandemic. The regions most affected by the pandemic, according to the IHME, are the Caribbean, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. The researchers attribute the discrepancies in reported deaths to limitations in testing capacity, with many Covid-19 deaths going unreported due to a lack of access to medical care and inadequate reporting systems in poorer regions.
The IHME’s model provides a more accurate picture of the pandemic’s toll on human life, and could help countries better prepare for future outbreaks. However, the analysis also highlights the challenges of accurately tracking a rapidly spreading virus. The IHME plans to release weekly updates based on their model, which predicts that the global death toll from Covid-19 could exceed 10 million by September 2021 in the worst-case scenario.
