The home advantage in professional football exists even in ghost games without spectators, according to a study by researchers from the German Sport University Cologne and the University of Paderborn. It is a well-established phenomenon that in professional football, the home team wins more often than the away team due to the so-called home advantage. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most professional games have been ghost games. The researchers analyzed more than 40,000 games from ten seasons in ten leagues from six European countries, including around 1,000 professional games without spectators in the most important European football leagues. The study shows that the home advantage also exists in ghost games, although both teams play similarly offensively.
The study also included betting odds, which reflect the assessment of football fans for a home advantage in games with and without spectators. “Our results show that while the game-relevant parameters, such as shots on goal and yellow and red cards, are equalized without spectators, this only has a limited effect on the actual home advantage in the direct comparison between games before COVID-19 with spectators and ghost games during the pandemic,” explains Professor Memmert from the University of Paderborn. The researchers also analyzed almost 6,000 games from amateur leagues to prove that the home advantage exists not only in professional but also in amateur football. Despite the absence of fans and the long journey of the opposing team, the home team still wins significantly more often in ghost games or games with few spectators.
The authors conclude that other factors, such as territorial behavior in the familiar environment, must account for the advantage of the home team. The study emphasizes that the home advantage is not solely due to the social support of fans. The findings of the study provide insights into the psychological and social factors that influence the performance of football teams and could help coaches and players to better understand and utilize the home advantage.
