A recent study by the University of Göttingen has revealed that only 15.6% of Covid-19 infections in Germany are being detected. This means that the actual number of cases is significantly higher than the official figures reported by the Robert Koch Institute. The study, conducted by development economists Dr. Christian Bommer and Prof. Dr. Sebastian Vollmer, estimates that instead of the reported 2,023,663 cases as of April 15th, there are actually over 10 million infected individuals in the country. The researchers attribute this discrepancy to delayed and inadequate testing, which also explains why countries like Spain and Italy have higher death rates compared to their number of confirmed cases.
The study’s findings have significant implications for governments and decision-makers who rely on official figures to plan their response to the pandemic. According to Vollmer, “these results mean that governments and political decision-makers must exercise extreme caution when interpreting case numbers for planning purposes. Such extreme differences in the scope and quality of testing conducted in different countries mean that official case numbers do not provide helpful information.” Bommer adds that “the ability to detect new infections and thus contain the spread of the virus urgently needs to be improved.”
The low detection rate in Germany is not unique, as other countries like the US and UK also have similarly low rates. This underscores the need for more widespread and accurate testing to better understand the true extent of the pandemic. The study’s authors hope that their findings will encourage governments to invest more resources in testing and contact tracing to help contain the spread of the virus.
