A new study by scientists at the University of Washington has found that an immediate halt to all human-made greenhouse gas emissions would initially accelerate global warming, but ultimately lead to a decrease in temperature in the medium and long term. The researchers used a computer model called “FaIR” to simulate the effects of stopping all emissions of 39 gases and short-lived climate drivers. They found that if all human-made emissions were stopped immediately, there would be a 42% chance that the Paris climate goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would not be achieved. If emissions were stopped in 2029, there would be a 66% chance of missing the target.
The study also found that an immediate halt to emissions would cause a short-term acceleration of global warming. This is because the aerosols produced by the burning of fossil fuels and biomass have a cooling effect on the climate by reflecting some of the sun’s rays. However, in the long term, the reduction of greenhouse gases would lead to a decrease in temperature, even in the absence of these aerosols.
Michelle Dvorak, one of the authors of the study, explained that they had examined two core aspects of climate change separately. The results of the simulation suggest that an immediate halt to all human-made emissions would have a significant impact on the achievement of the Paris climate goal. The study highlights the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible to limit the impact of climate change.
