The coin toss significantly influences penalty shootouts, with a 60% chance of winning for the team that wins the draw. In knockout phases of football tournaments like the UEFA EURO 2020, the winner is determined by a penalty shootout in the event of a tie after regular playtime. The order in which the teams take their penalties has long been debated in psychology, with some suggesting that the team that shoots first has an advantage. However, a recent study by Matthias Sutter and his team at the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods in Bonn has found that the result of the coin toss also plays a significant role in determining the winner of the shootout.
The study, published in the journal Games and Economic Behavior, analyzed 207 penalty shootouts from 14 international football tournaments between July 2003 and August 2017, including the World and European Championships. Despite the assumption that the team that shoots first has an advantage, only 56% of the captains who won the coin toss chose to shoot first. The researchers suggest that this may be a deliberate strategic decision, as shooting second could be advantageous if the team’s goalkeeper is considered better and more likely to save the ball.
The study also found that the team that shoots first does not have a significant advantage, with a winning frequency of only 51%. However, the team that wins the coin toss has a much higher chance of winning the shootout, with a winning frequency of 60% when given the choice of shooting first or second. These findings highlight the importance of the coin toss in penalty shootouts and suggest that teams should carefully consider their strategy when given the opportunity to choose their shooting order.
